2018 Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are on tomorrow night, and since I've seen all of the Best Picture nominees, I figured I'd post my predictions.  I apparently haven't done this since 2015. I admittedly went through a period where I wasn't that *into* movies like I was before. Maybe I'm getting my mojo back.

Below are my predictions for who I WANT to win, and who I think WILL win. Movies I haven't seen yet are in italics.

BEST PICTURE

• Call Me by Your Name
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk*
• Get Out**
• Lady Bird
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri  WANT / WILL

Of the nine movies, Three Billboards is the one I most enjoyed, and my prediction is also based on the awards it has already won.

I heard on the radio today that Oscar voters are asked to rank the nine movies from best to worst--here's how I'd do that strictly based on how much I enjoyed it:

1. Three Billboards
2. Lady Bird
3. Get Out
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Shape of Water
6. Darkest Hour
7. The Post
8. Phantom Thread
9. Dunkirk

* If you want to get technical, I really only saw 8 1/4 of the movies because I could. not. finish. Dunkirk.  Man, that movie was boring.  It reminded me of The Thin Red Line, which I saw in the theater and slept through.  It's a beautiful movie though--maybe it'll get something for cinematography.

** I wouldn't be upset if Get Out slipped in and won best picture.  And I kind of think that could happen. 

BEST DIRECTOR

• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Jordan Peele, Get Out  WANT
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
• Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water  WILL

BEST ACTOR

• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour  WANT / WILL
• Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

BEST ACTRESS

• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri  WANT / WILL
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep, The Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri  WANT / WILL

If I could, I would write in my own nominee here:  Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name.  His speech toward the end of the movie was everything and he really should've received a nomination for it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya  WANT / WILL
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Allison Janney can do anything.  She is such a great actress.  If she wasn't so great or not in this category, I'd give this to Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread.  Bravo to Mary J. for getting a nomination!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
• Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist  WANT / WILL
• Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan
• Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
• Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound

I haven't read any of these, so as is often the case, this is a guess.  The Disaster Artist is so crazy.  If you don't know, it's about the making of a terrible cult film called The Room.  At the end of the movie, they showed scenes from The Disaster Artist compared to the actual scenes from The Room and they were dead on.  I imagine that same kind of meticulous treatment was applied in converting the source material into the screenplay.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick WANT
• Jordan Peele, Get Out
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
• Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri WILL

This is the hardest category.  Any of them could win.  I'd love to see The Big Sick win because it was a true story and so good.  Get Out is a horror movie but also such a great social commentary--I think it gets people thinking.  Lady Bird was a different kind of coming of age story...there was nothing stereotypical about it.  The Shape of Water is very original, but now that I think about it, I don't actually think it had the best screenplay...I had some issues with some parts, so I'll take that one out.  And that leaves Three Billboards, which was so great and different.  And the movie clearly resonated with people because now folks are making billboards of their own.  That quiet method of protest and questioning authority seems to have taken hold.  That's why I went with it as my predicted winner.

We'll see what happens tomorrow!