2019 Oscar Predictions (and Wins)

The Oscars will be on shortly and I just finished watching "Roma," the final Best Picture nominee that I needed to see.

Here are my predictions for who I WANT to win, and who I think WILL win.  Movies I haven't seen yet are in italics.  

UPDATE:  I've added who won in RED.

BEST PICTURE

• BlacKkKlansman WANT
• Black Panther WILL
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book WON
• Roma  
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

There's been a lot of talk about Oscars not awarding blockbuster movies, which is why I think Black Panther could win this.  Each year it seems Oscar voters try to address all the criticism they receive from previous years. This list of nominees is evident of that.  A couple years ago, the biggest hashtag on Oscar night was #OscarSoWhite.  Now look at all the diverse nominees this year.  Hopefully that's not just a temporary correction.  I personally liked BlacKkKlansman the best of these nominees and am hoping for it to win.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Alfonso Cuaron for Roma WON
• Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman WANT / WILL
• Adam McKay for Vice
• Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War
• Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite

This category is fully of great nominees this year.  Roma and The Favourite were intriguing to watch, but I think the award they're more deserving of is the award for best cinematography. (Roma did win Best Cinematography)

Spike is due for an Oscar and I think it's well deserved for BlacKkKlansman.  I think the Academy could give him the award this year and give themselves a pat on the back for honoring not only this movie, but also his whole body of work.

BEST ACTRESS

• Yalitza Aparicio in Roma
• Glenn Close in The Wife WANT / WILL
• Olivia Colman in The Favourite WON
• Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I love actors who can convey so much meaning with just their facial expressions.  I saw The Wife the other day and Glenn Close does this in spades.  She's very deserving of this award.  I just can't predict whether she'll win or not, but I went ahead with the prediction that she will win.  It could go any way.  All of the performances are great--I didn't see Melissa McCarthy, but I'm sure her nomination is deserved--she's so talented.

BEST ACTOR

• Christian Bale in Vice WANT
• Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe in At Eternity's Gate
• Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody WILL / WON
• Viggo Mortensen in Green Book

Christian Bale just disappears into Dick Cheney and I think this would be a deserved win.  Rami Malek was great too as Freddie Mercury and I wouldn't be upset by his winning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali in Green Book WANT / WILL / WON
• Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell in Vice

Mahershala is just so great at what he does.  I would be really happy to see Adam Driver get this too.
Sam Rockwell was great as Dubya in Vice, but his role didn't provide much oomph to the movie.  Same for Sam Elliott in A Star is Born.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams in Vice
• Marina de Tavira in Roma
• Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk WANT / WILL / WON
• Emma Stone in The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz in The Favourite

Emma and Rachel were great in The Favourite and might cancel each other out in votes.  Despite that, I have to go with Regina King.  She was so good in Beale Street, and again, does so much acting with her eyes and facial expressions.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman WANT / WON
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born WILL

I'm behind BlacKkKlansman all the way, but I wouldn't be mad if A Star Is Born won.  I liked it better than the Barbra Streisand version.  A win here would keep it from being shut out of the Oscars.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book WILL / WANT / WON
• Roma
• Vice 

I'm torn on this category.  I think Vice was quite clever, but I liked Green Book better, and would like to see it win.  I think it could.

So that's it.  I'll come back tomorrow with who did win.  I'm looking forward to Queen and Adam Lambert opening up the Oscars tonight.  Should be a good show considering the musical numbers.  Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper will be singing too.  Will we miss there being a host?  I suspect not, but we'll see!

UPDATE/Comments on the Show:

Who needs a host when the show opens with Queen and Adam Lambert?!  That was fun to see everyone in their red carpet gowns just rocking out.

Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper's performance:  ooh la la!

As my sister said, we need more Spike Lee at awards shows...she pointed out that he's so entertaining!

My biggest disappointment was Glenn Close not getting her Oscar.  Olivia Colman was great in The Favourite, but I was really, really pulling for Glenn Close.  Olivia gave a great speech though!

I'm surprised Green Book won Best Picture.  Based on what I'm seeing on Twitter, there's a lot of disappointment.  Well, people are pissed, actually.  I'm not disappointed, I enjoyed the movie.  Just surprised.

I did a decent job with my predictions this year.

Overall, it was a good show.  I didn't miss a host.  It didn't run on too, too long.  And now I have some more movies to see.